John Burroughs
prior #3 · recommended #4 · final #4 legacy 1.00Margin strength
5.1
vs top-16 avg 5.1
Projected margin
-0.3
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.650
as of 2026-05-30
Offense
75.09
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
65.51
domain stat
Possession
71.93
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #3
- Recommended (model)
- #4
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #4
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #5
- Projected margin rating
- -0.3
- Departure loss %
- 44.5%
- Returning production share
- 15.4%
- Departure loss
- 44.5%
- Seniors departing
- 7
- Awards points
- +3 returning · −59 departing
- Legacy prior
- 1.00
Action-flagged
- · low_returning_heavy_loss
- · award_talent_loss
Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review;underclass_surge_or_replacement
Secondary regression: legacy_depth_floor
Awards
Departing
Reese Rafferty (all american: All American); Azin Mofidi (all state first: 1st Team); Kate Logsdon (all state first: 1st Team); Katy Chapman (all state first: 1st Team); Reese Rafferty (all state first: 1st Team); Reese Rafferty (all conference: METRO; Player of Year); Azin Mofidi (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Kate Logsdon (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Katy Chapman (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Jane Dunaway (all conference: METRO; 2nd Team); Sophie Buchowski (all conference: METRO; 2nd Team)
Returning
Caroline Deutsch (all conference: METRO; Honorable Mention); Devon Gable (all conference: METRO; 2nd Team); Flynn Engelsmann (all conference: METRO; Honorable Mention)
Departing players (2025-26)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kate Logsdon | — | 48 | 18.9% | 14.7% | 38.1% | 8.6% | 14.4% |
| Morgan Cade | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 39.1% | 9.2% |
| Reese Rafferty | — | 81 | 31.6% | 27.4% | 3.7% | 0.6% | 7.5% |
| Katy Chapman | — | 25 | 9.8% | 5.7% | 17.0% | 2.6% | 6.0% |
| Azin Mofidi | — | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 15.4% | 3.3% | 4.4% |
| Jane Dunaway | — | 38 | 15.0% | 10.8% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 2.8% |
| Sophie Buchowski | — | 3 | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
Player impact (2025-26)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kate Logsdon | offense | 16 | 40 | 18.9% | 42.0% | 11.3% | 0.0% / 11.3% | 16.6 |
| Reese Rafferty | offense | 16 | 75 | 31.6% | 7.7% | 3.2% | 0.0% / 3.2% | 10.7 |
| Morgan Cade | goalie | 16 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 46.7% | 46.4% / 0.3% | 10.7 |
| Katy Chapman | offense | 10 | 24 | 9.8% | 21.0% | 5.3% | 0.0% / 5.3% | 8.3 |
| Jane Dunaway | offense | 14 | 36 | 15.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 0.0% / 3.9% | 5.7 |
| Azin Mofidi | defense | 16 | 2 | 0.7% | 18.2% | 5.7% | 0.0% / 5.7% | 5.2 |
| Devon Gable | offense | 16 | 24 | 9.8% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 0.0% / 1.9% | 3.3 |
| Flynn Engelsmann | offense | 15 | 17 | 7.2% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% / 1.0% | 2.1 |
| Miriam Imster | goalie | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.6% | 8.6% / 0.0% | 2.0 |
| Sophie Buchowski | offense | 13 | 3 | 1.4% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 0.0% / 3.6% | 1.7 |
| Caroline Deutsch | offense | 15 | 10 | 3.9% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% / 0.9% | 1.3 |
| Tessa Zwicker | defense | 12 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 0.0% / 2.2% | 0.7 |
| Finnley Desloge | defense | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0% | 0.0% / 3.0% | 0.7 |
| Rani Orsay | offense | 11 | 2 | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.0% / 1.1% | 0.6 |
| Alara Albrecht | offense | 4 | 2 | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.4 |
| Audrey White | offense | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% / 0.8% | 0.3 |
| Vivienne Sharp | offense | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.1 |
| Finley Rose McGowan | offense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Finley Hogan | offense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2027)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Incarnate Word | 9.9 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 9.5 | — |
| Notre Dame | 8.7 | — |
| Clayton | 7.9 | — |
| Parkway North | 7.5 | — |
| Parkway Central | 7.4 | — |
| Parkway South | 7.2 | — |
| Belleville West | 7.1 | — |
| Francis Howell | 6.6 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 6.5 | — |
| Pattonville | 6.4 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 6.3 | — |
| Marquette | 6.1 | — |
| Lindbergh | 5.9 | — |
| Kirkwood | 5.8 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 5.7 | — |
| Webster Groves | 5.4 | — |
| St. Dominic | 5.3 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | 5.3 | — |
| Parkway West | 5.1 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | 4.8 | — |
| Northwest | 4.7 | — |
| O'Fallon | 4.2 | — |
| Fox High School | 3.8 | — |
| Lafayette | 3.7 | — |
| Eureka | -3.4 | — |
| Oakville | 3.4 | — |
| Wentzville | -3.0 | — |
| MICDS | -2.1 | — |
| Edwardsville | 2.0 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | 0.8 | — |
| Visitation Academy | 0.7 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | 0.5 | — |
| Westminster | -0.4 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | 0.3 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2027,
"team_name": "John Burroughs",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 3,
"current_composite_rank": 3,
"recommended_rank": 4,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 1,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 41.42,
"score_drop": 44.5,
"returning_production_share": 0.154,
"departure_loss_pct": 44.5,
"legacy_prior": 1.0,
"seniors_count": 7,
"awards_points": 62,
"departing_awards_points": 59,
"returning_awards_points": 3,
"flag_codes": "low_returning_heavy_loss;award_talent_loss",
"action_flag_codes": "low_returning_heavy_loss;award_talent_loss",
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 2,
"action_flag_count": 2,
"needs_board_review": "yes",
"review_priority": "medium",
"regression_tracks": "award_talent_review;underclass_surge_or_replacement",
"board_note": "Recommend rank 4 (prior finish 3). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss, award_talent_loss. Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review; underclass_surge_or_replacement.",
"secondary_slot_delta": -1,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": "legacy_depth_floor",
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 4,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": 4,
"actual_finish_rank": null,
"projection_error": null,
"is_backtest": false,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2026-27\", \"team_name\": \"John Burroughs\", \"avg_margin\": \"5.75\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 4 (prior finish 3). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss, award_talent_loss. Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review; underclass_surge_or_replacement.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.537\", \"final_rank\": \"4\", \"flag_codes\": \"low_returning_heavy_loss;award_talent_loss\", \"flag_count\": \"2\", \"margin_std\": \"5.65\", \"score_drop\": \"44.5\", \"top8_games\": \"8\", \"margin_wins\": \"13\", \"top16_games\": \"14\", \"legacy_prior\": \"1.0\", \"margin_games\": \"16\", \"awards_points\": \"62\", \"margin_losses\": \"3\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"7\", \"record_vs_top8\": \"5-3\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"medium\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"45.0\", \"departing_awards\": \"Reese Rafferty (all american: All American); Azin Mofidi (all state first: 1st Team); Kate Logsdon (all state first: 1st Team); Katy Chapman (all state first: 1st Team); Reese Rafferty (all state first: 1st Team); Reese Rafferty (all conference: METRO; Player of Year); Azin Mofidi (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Kate Logsdon (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Katy Chapman (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Jane Dunaway (all conference: METRO; 2nd Team); Sophie Buchowski (all conference: METRO; 2nd Team)\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"38.0\", \"projection_error\": \"\", \"recommended_rank\": \"4\", \"returning_awards\": \"Caroline Deutsch (all conference: METRO; Honorable Mention); Devon Gable (all conference: METRO; 2nd Team); Flynn Engelsmann (all conference: METRO; Honorable Mention)\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.403\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"low_returning_heavy_loss;award_talent_loss\", \"action_flag_count\": \"2\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"1\", \"avg_margin_capped\": \"5.44\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"model_adjusted\", \"league_order_rank\": \"4\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"3\", \"regression_tracks\": \"award_talent_review;underclass_surge_or_replacement\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"\", \"avg_margin_vs_top8\": \"2.0\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"44.5\", \"needs_board_review\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.047\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_vs_top16\": \"5.07\", \"margin_std_vs_top16\": \"5.73\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"42.0\", \"projected_composite\": \"41.42\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"1\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.047\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"-1\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"True\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"3\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.232\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"59\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-0.27\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"3\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"feeder_pair_offense\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"55.45\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"4\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.253\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.154\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"legacy_depth_floor\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"5\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 5,
"projected_margin_rating": -0.27,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": 5.07,
"projected_turnover_index": 55.45,
"departing_awards": "Reese Rafferty (all american: All American); Azin Mofidi (all state first: 1st Team); Kate Logsdon (all state first: 1st Team); Katy Chapman (all state first: 1st Team); Reese Rafferty (all state first: 1st Team); Reese Rafferty (all conference: METRO; Player of Year); Azin Mofidi (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Kate Logsdon (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Katy Chapman (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Jane Dunaway (all conference: METRO; 2nd Team); Sophie Buchowski (all conference: METRO; 2nd Team)",
"returning_awards": "Caroline Deutsch (all conference: METRO; Honorable Mention); Devon Gable (all conference: METRO; 2nd Team); Flynn Engelsmann (all conference: METRO; Honorable Mention)",
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "john-burroughs",
"effective_rank": 4,
"final_rank_resolved": 4
}