MICDS
prior #5 · recommended #3 · final #3 legacy 1.00Margin strength
4.5
vs top-16 avg 4.5
Projected margin
3.2
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.631
as of 2026-05-30
Offense
74.83
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
64.48
domain stat
Possession
62.08
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #5
- Recommended (model)
- #3
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #3
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #3
- Projected margin rating
- 3.2
- Departure loss %
- 10.7%
- Returning production share
- 77.7%
- Departure loss
- 10.7%
- Seniors departing
- 7
- Awards points
- +21 returning · −13 departing
- Legacy prior
- 1.00
Action-flagged
- · award_talent_loss
Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review
Awards
Departing
Amelia Mackin (all state first: 1st Team); Amelia Mackin (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Georgia Lochhead (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Katie Sheehan (all conference: METRO; 2nd Team)
Returning
Josie Ciaramita (all state first: 1st Team); Victoria Noble (all state hm: Honorable Mention); Josie Ciaramita (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Katherine Schott (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Victoria Noble (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Lilah Pronger (all conference: METRO; 2nd Team); Lydia Brown (all conference: METRO; Honorable Mention); Tara Sadasivam (all conference: METRO; 2nd Team)
Departing players (2025-26)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amelia Mackin | — | 46 | 21.3% | 17.1% | 25.8% | 1.6% | 10.2% |
| Georgia Lochhead | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Emma Allen | — | 10 | 4.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Akira Washington | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Claire Hofer | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katie Sheehan | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mia Brauer | — | 4 | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2025-26)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josie Ciaramita | offense | 14 | 60 | 30.6% | 19.3% | 7.9% | 0.0% / 7.9% | 13.4 |
| Amelia Mackin | offense | 14 | 44 | 21.3% | 29.8% | 4.3% | 0.0% / 4.3% | 12.1 |
| Tara Sadasivam | goalie | 14 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 52.7% | 52.7% / 0.0% | 11.9 |
| Victoria Noble | offense | 14 | 38 | 19.4% | 26.7% | 4.7% | 0.0% / 4.7% | 11.1 |
| Katherine Schott | offense | 14 | 26 | 12.5% | 13.2% | 5.7% | 0.0% / 5.7% | 7.0 |
| Lydia Brown | offense | 12 | 9 | 4.3% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 0.0% / 4.1% | 3.3 |
| Emma Allen | offense | 13 | 9 | 4.8% | 0.0% | 2.5% | 0.0% / 2.5% | 1.8 |
| Mabel Dando | offense | 11 | 6 | 2.5% | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.0% / 1.7% | 1.0 |
| Mia Brauer | offense | 10 | 6 | 2.1% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.0% / 1.2% | 0.9 |
| Lilah Pronger | defense | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 0.0% / 2.9% | 0.9 |
| Georgia Lochhead | defense | 11 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% / 4.0% | 0.9 |
| Elle Ferguson | defense | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 0.0% / 2.4% | 0.8 |
| Katie Sheehan | defense | 10 | 1 | 0.3% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 0.0% / 2.1% | 0.7 |
| Sadie Small | offense | 6 | 7 | 2.3% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.7 |
| Alayna Wright | goalie | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.3% | 2.3% / 0.0% | 0.5 |
| Claire Hofer | offense | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% / 0.8% | 0.2 |
| Akira Washington | defense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Serena Doumit | defense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Skyler Dastgah-Bradford | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2027)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Incarnate Word | 12.0 | blowout |
| Nerinx Hall | 11.6 | blowout |
| Notre Dame | 10.8 | blowout |
| Clayton | 10.0 | blowout |
| Parkway North | 9.6 | — |
| Parkway Central | 9.5 | — |
| Parkway South | 9.3 | — |
| Belleville West | 9.2 | — |
| Francis Howell | 8.7 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 8.6 | — |
| Pattonville | 8.5 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 8.4 | — |
| Marquette | 8.2 | — |
| Lindbergh | 8.0 | — |
| Kirkwood | 7.9 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 7.8 | — |
| Webster Groves | 7.4 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | 7.3 | — |
| St. Dominic | 7.3 | — |
| Parkway West | 7.2 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | 6.9 | — |
| Northwest | 6.8 | — |
| O'Fallon | 6.3 | — |
| Fox High School | 5.9 | — |
| Lafayette | 5.8 | — |
| Oakville | 5.5 | — |
| Edwardsville | 4.1 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | 2.9 | — |
| Visitation Academy | 2.8 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | 2.6 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | 2.4 | — |
| John Burroughs | 2.1 | — |
| Westminster | 1.6 | — |
| Eureka | -1.3 | — |
| Wentzville | -0.9 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2027,
"team_name": "MICDS",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 5,
"current_composite_rank": 4,
"recommended_rank": 3,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": -2,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 60.25,
"score_drop": 10.7,
"returning_production_share": 0.777,
"departure_loss_pct": 10.7,
"legacy_prior": 1.0,
"seniors_count": 7,
"awards_points": 34,
"departing_awards_points": 13,
"returning_awards_points": 21,
"flag_codes": "award_talent_loss",
"action_flag_codes": "award_talent_loss",
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 1,
"action_flag_count": 1,
"needs_board_review": "yes",
"review_priority": "medium",
"regression_tracks": "award_talent_review",
"board_note": "Recommend rank 3 (prior finish 5). Flagged for board review: award_talent_loss. Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 3,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": 3,
"actual_finish_rank": null,
"projection_error": null,
"is_backtest": false,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2026-27\", \"team_name\": \"MICDS\", \"avg_margin\": \"5.71\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 3 (prior finish 5). Flagged for board review: award_talent_loss. Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"3\", \"flag_codes\": \"award_talent_loss\", \"flag_count\": \"1\", \"margin_std\": \"7.01\", \"score_drop\": \"10.7\", \"top8_games\": \"8\", \"margin_wins\": \"10\", \"top16_games\": \"12\", \"legacy_prior\": \"1.0\", \"margin_games\": \"14\", \"awards_points\": \"34\", \"margin_losses\": \"4\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"7\", \"record_vs_top8\": \"4-4\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"medium\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"3.2\", \"departing_awards\": \"Amelia Mackin (all state first: 1st Team); Amelia Mackin (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Georgia Lochhead (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Katie Sheehan (all conference: METRO; 2nd Team)\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"12.7\", \"projection_error\": \"\", \"recommended_rank\": \"3\", \"returning_awards\": \"Josie Ciaramita (all state first: 1st Team); Victoria Noble (all state hm: Honorable Mention); Josie Ciaramita (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Katherine Schott (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Victoria Noble (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Lilah Pronger (all conference: METRO; 2nd Team); Lydia Brown (all conference: METRO; Honorable Mention); Tara Sadasivam (all conference: METRO; 2nd Team)\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.311\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"award_talent_loss\", \"action_flag_count\": \"1\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"-2\", \"avg_margin_capped\": \"4.57\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"model_adjusted\", \"league_order_rank\": \"3\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"5\", \"regression_tracks\": \"award_talent_review\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"\", \"avg_margin_vs_top8\": \"0.75\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"10.7\", \"needs_board_review\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.703\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_vs_top16\": \"4.5\", \"margin_std_vs_top16\": \"6.84\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"16.6\", \"projected_composite\": \"60.25\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"-2\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.703\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"False\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"4\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.688\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"13\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"3.22\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"21\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"89.33\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"3\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.764\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.777\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"3\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 3,
"projected_margin_rating": 3.22,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": 4.5,
"projected_turnover_index": 89.33,
"departing_awards": "Amelia Mackin (all state first: 1st Team); Amelia Mackin (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Georgia Lochhead (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Katie Sheehan (all conference: METRO; 2nd Team)",
"returning_awards": "Josie Ciaramita (all state first: 1st Team); Victoria Noble (all state hm: Honorable Mention); Josie Ciaramita (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Katherine Schott (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Victoria Noble (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Lilah Pronger (all conference: METRO; 2nd Team); Lydia Brown (all conference: METRO; Honorable Mention); Tara Sadasivam (all conference: METRO; 2nd Team)",
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "micds",
"effective_rank": 3,
"final_rank_resolved": 3
}