O'Fallon
prior #8 · recommended #9 · final #9 legacy 1.00Margin strength
-5.4
vs top-16 avg -5.4
Projected margin
-7.3
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.535
as of 2026-05-30
Offense
52.92
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
57.57
domain stat
Possession
53.27
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #8
- Recommended (model)
- #8
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #9
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #14
- Projected margin rating
- -7.3
- Departure loss %
- 15.7%
- Returning production share
- 70.3%
- Departure loss
- 15.7%
- Seniors departing
- 8
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −0 departing
- Legacy prior
- 1.00
Awards
No awards rolled up.
Departing players (2025-26)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jori Posey | — | 10 | 9.3% | 5.1% | 26.6% | 1.9% | 8.1% |
| Elena Henry | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.9% | 4.5% | 3.2% |
| Abby Scott | — | 17 | 15.9% | 11.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.8% |
| Isa Boyd | — | 11 | 10.5% | 6.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.5% |
| Gabby Valdez | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jolie Jokinen | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maggie Lawler | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Molly Maguire | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2025-26)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Buehler | offense | 13 | 39 | 30.7% | 22.6% | 7.9% | 0.0% / 7.9% | 10.9 |
| Sophia Perry | goalie | 13 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 48.8% | 47.4% / 1.4% | 9.8 |
| Jori Posey | offense | 13 | 17 | 9.3% | 30.6% | 4.5% | 0.0% / 4.5% | 7.5 |
| Savanah Spencer | offense | 14 | 22 | 15.8% | 15.6% | 5.0% | 0.0% / 5.0% | 6.4 |
| Addison Last | offense | 14 | 21 | 14.9% | 15.0% | 4.5% | 0.0% / 4.5% | 6.1 |
| Abby Scott | offense | 14 | 21 | 15.9% | 0.3% | 2.0% | 0.0% / 2.0% | 3.4 |
| Elena Henry | defense | 11 | 0 | 0.0% | 11.7% | 6.9% | 0.0% / 6.9% | 3.3 |
| Isa Boyd | offense | 11 | 18 | 10.4% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.0% / 1.8% | 2.6 |
| Emma Edwards | goalie | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.6% | 7.6% / 0.0% | 1.5 |
| Scarlett Spencer | offense | 12 | 3 | 0.9% | 0.6% | 4.1% | 0.0% / 4.1% | 1.1 |
| Josie Henry | offense | 10 | 2 | 1.5% | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0.0% / 2.6% | 0.9 |
| Molly Maguire | defense | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 0.0% / 2.1% | 0.6 |
| Maggie Lawler | defense | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% / 1.2% | 0.2 |
| Emerson Haycraft | offense | 4 | 1 | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.1 |
| Maylie Swyear | defense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.1 |
| Jolie Jokinen | defense | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.1 |
| Riley Lewis | defense | 2 | 1 | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Crosbie Christopher | offense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Gabby Valdez | defense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2027)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Eureka | -7.7 | — |
| Wentzville | -7.2 | — |
| MICDS | -6.3 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 5.7 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 5.2 | — |
| Westminster | -4.7 | — |
| Notre Dame | 4.4 | — |
| John Burroughs | -4.2 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -3.9 | — |
| Clayton | 3.7 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -3.7 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -3.5 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -3.4 | — |
| Parkway North | 3.3 | — |
| Parkway Central | 3.1 | — |
| Parkway South | 3.0 | — |
| Belleville West | 2.9 | — |
| Francis Howell | 2.4 | — |
| Edwardsville | -2.2 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 2.2 | — |
| Pattonville | 2.2 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 2.1 | — |
| Marquette | 1.9 | — |
| Kirkwood | 1.6 | — |
| Lindbergh | 1.6 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 1.5 | — |
| Webster Groves | 1.1 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | 1.0 | — |
| St. Dominic | 1.0 | — |
| Parkway West | 0.9 | — |
| Oakville | -0.8 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | 0.5 | — |
| Lafayette | -0.5 | — |
| Northwest | 0.5 | — |
| Fox High School | -0.4 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2027,
"team_name": "O'Fallon",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 8,
"current_composite_rank": 14,
"recommended_rank": 8,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 0,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 46.13,
"score_drop": 15.7,
"returning_production_share": 0.703,
"departure_loss_pct": 15.7,
"legacy_prior": 1.0,
"seniors_count": 8,
"awards_points": 0,
"departing_awards_points": 0,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": null,
"action_flag_codes": null,
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 0,
"action_flag_count": 0,
"needs_board_review": "no",
"review_priority": null,
"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 9,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 1,
"league_order_rank": 9,
"actual_finish_rank": null,
"projection_error": null,
"is_backtest": false,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2026-27\", \"team_name\": \"O'Fallon\", \"avg_margin\": \"0.93\", \"board_note\": \"Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.395\", \"final_rank\": \"9\", \"flag_codes\": \"\", \"flag_count\": \"0\", \"margin_std\": \"9.79\", \"score_drop\": \"15.7\", \"top8_games\": \"6\", \"margin_wins\": \"6\", \"top16_games\": \"9\", \"legacy_prior\": \"1.0\", \"margin_games\": \"14\", \"awards_points\": \"0\", \"margin_losses\": \"8\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"8\", \"record_vs_top8\": \"0-6\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"6.4\", \"departing_awards\": \"\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"17.6\", \"projection_error\": \"\", \"recommended_rank\": \"8\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.297\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"1\", \"avg_margin_capped\": \"0.07\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"model_adjusted\", \"league_order_rank\": \"9\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"8\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"\", \"avg_margin_vs_top8\": \"-8.17\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"15.7\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.617\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"1\", \"avg_margin_vs_top16\": \"-5.44\", \"margin_std_vs_top16\": \"4.77\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"25.0\", \"projected_composite\": \"46.13\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.617\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"False\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"14\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.302\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"0\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-7.32\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"84.26\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"9\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.603\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.703\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"14\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 14,
"projected_margin_rating": -7.32,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": -5.44,
"projected_turnover_index": 84.26,
"departing_awards": null,
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "o-fallon",
"effective_rank": 9,
"final_rank_resolved": 9
}