Parkway Central
prior #23 · recommended #21 · final #21 legacy 0.36Margin strength
5.8
vs top-16 avg -6.0
Projected margin
4.1
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.462
as of 2025-05-30
Offense
71.64
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
59.76
domain stat
Possession
81.72
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #23
- Recommended (model)
- #21
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #21
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #3
- Projected margin rating
- 4.1
- Departure loss %
- 14.6%
- Returning production share
- 72.6%
- Departure loss
- 14.6%
- Seniors departing
- 7
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −0 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.36
Action-flagged
- · backtest_large_error
Suggested follow-up: post_hoc_regression_candidate
Info flags:
roster_margin_split
Secondary regression: returning_draw_control
Awards
No awards rolled up.
Departing players (2024-25)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Jones | — | 15 | 16.8% | 12.7% | 33.4% | 2.7% | 12.3% |
| Alie Simmons | — | 6 | 6.8% | 2.7% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% |
| Lily Horowitz | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.8% | 0.7% |
| Grace Li | — | 2 | 3.2% | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| Evie Huff | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Sophia Lundry | — | 0 | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2024-25)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Jones | offense | 12 | 26 | 16.8% | 37.3% | 5.4% | 0.0% / 5.4% | 14.3 |
| Olivia Bumbac | goalie | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% / 0.0% | 11.5 |
| Taryn Provinse | offense | 12 | 33 | 19.1% | 13.2% | 3.7% | 0.0% / 3.7% | 8.7 |
| Lizzy Wagner | offense | 12 | 14 | 9.0% | 20.8% | 3.8% | 0.0% / 3.8% | 8.0 |
| Mia Behrends | offense | 12 | 47 | 29.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% / 0.8% | 7.7 |
| Claire Emerson | offense | 12 | 8 | 4.9% | 10.9% | 2.5% | 0.0% / 2.5% | 4.3 |
| Alie Simmons | offense | 11 | 11 | 6.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 0.0% / 3.7% | 3.3 |
| Grace Li | offense | 12 | 5 | 3.2% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 0.0% / 2.4% | 2.6 |
| Claire Jones | offense | 9 | 4 | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 0.0% / 2.8% | 2.2 |
| Lily Horowitz | defense | 10 | 1 | 0.4% | 2.3% | 5.2% | 0.0% / 5.2% | 1.6 |
| Ella Wujcik | defense | 11 | 1 | 0.6% | 0.8% | 3.5% | 0.0% / 3.5% | 0.9 |
| Lia Lichtman | offense | 8 | 5 | 2.9% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.8 |
| Evie Huff | defense | 8 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 3.4% | 0.0% / 3.4% | 0.8 |
| Julia Harris | defense | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0% | 0.0% / 3.0% | 0.6 |
| Allison Colozza | defense | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.8% | 0.0% / 2.8% | 0.6 |
| Sophia Lundry | offense | 11 | 1 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% / 1.0% | 0.3 |
| Victoria Knolhoff | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.3 |
| Ilse Krakos | offense | 1 | 2 | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.3 |
| Clara Carmody | defense | 2 | 3 | 1.7% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.1 |
Projected matchups (2026)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Incarnate Word | 13.4 | blowout |
| Belleville West | 12.1 | blowout |
| Notre Dame | 11.8 | blowout |
| Francis Howell North | 10.7 | blowout |
| Ursuline Academy | 9.3 | — |
| Northwest | 8.9 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 8.6 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | 8.4 | — |
| Francis Howell | 7.8 | — |
| Wentzville | 7.8 | — |
| Lindbergh | 7.7 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | 7.3 | — |
| O'Fallon | 7.3 | — |
| Parkway West | 7.3 | — |
| St. Dominic | 7.2 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 7.1 | — |
| Parkway South | 7.0 | — |
| Webster Groves | 6.5 | — |
| Kirkwood | 6.3 | — |
| Lafayette | 6.1 | — |
| Marquette | 5.8 | — |
| Oakville | 5.7 | — |
| Visitation Academy | 5.7 | — |
| Fox High School | 4.9 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | 4.9 | — |
| Westminster | 4.7 | — |
| Edwardsville | 3.9 | — |
| Clayton | 3.9 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | 2.9 | — |
| John Burroughs | -2.1 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | 2.1 | — |
| MICDS | 1.0 | — |
| Eureka | -0.2 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2026,
"team_name": "Parkway Central",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 23,
"current_composite_rank": 3,
"recommended_rank": 21,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": -2,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 59.51,
"score_drop": 14.6,
"returning_production_share": 0.726,
"departure_loss_pct": 14.6,
"legacy_prior": 0.362,
"seniors_count": 7,
"awards_points": 0,
"departing_awards_points": 0,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": "roster_margin_split;backtest_large_error",
"action_flag_codes": "backtest_large_error",
"info_flag_codes": "roster_margin_split",
"flag_count": 2,
"action_flag_count": 1,
"needs_board_review": "yes",
"review_priority": "high",
"regression_tracks": "post_hoc_regression_candidate",
"board_note": "Recommend rank 21 (prior finish 23). Flagged for board review: backtest_large_error. Suggested follow-up: post_hoc_regression_candidate.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": "returning_draw_control",
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 21,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": null,
"actual_finish_rank": 28,
"projection_error": -7.0,
"is_backtest": true,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2025_26_backtest\", \"team_name\": \"Parkway Central\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 21 (prior finish 23). Flagged for board review: backtest_large_error. Suggested follow-up: post_hoc_regression_candidate.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"\", \"flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split;backtest_large_error\", \"flag_count\": \"2\", \"score_drop\": \"14.6\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.362\", \"awards_points\": \"0\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"7\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split\", \"review_priority\": \"high\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"7.5\", \"departing_awards\": \"\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"11.3\", \"projection_error\": \"-7\", \"recommended_rank\": \"21\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.494\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"backtest_large_error\", \"action_flag_count\": \"1\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"-2\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"23\", \"regression_tracks\": \"post_hoc_regression_candidate\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"28\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"14.6\", \"needs_board_review\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.508\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"25.0\", \"projected_composite\": \"59.51\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"-2\", \"composite_split_note\": \"also\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.508\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"False\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"3\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.562\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"0\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"4.08\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"85.41\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"21\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.721\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.726\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"returning_draw_control\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"3\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 3,
"projected_margin_rating": 4.08,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": null,
"projected_turnover_index": 85.41,
"departing_awards": null,
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "parkway-central",
"effective_rank": 21,
"final_rank_resolved": 21
}