St. Joseph's Academy
prior #6 · recommended #6 · final #6 legacy 1.00Margin strength
2.1
vs top-16 avg 2.1
Projected margin
-0.7
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.624
as of 2026-05-30
Offense
71.51
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
55.29
domain stat
Possession
66.17
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #6
- Recommended (model)
- #6
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #6
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #6
- Projected margin rating
- -0.7
- Departure loss %
- 23.6%
- Returning production share
- 57.7%
- Departure loss
- 23.6%
- Seniors departing
- 7
- Awards points
- +12 returning · −16 departing
- Legacy prior
- 1.00
Action-flagged
- · award_talent_loss
Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review
Awards
Departing
Reagan Pullium (all state first: 1st Team); Shannon Bryan (all state hm: Honorable Mention); Reagan Pullium (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Shannon Bryan (all conference: GISL; 1st Team)
Returning
Jayne Riva (all state hm: Honorable Mention); Ella Nichols (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Jayne Riva (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Brooke Butler (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Izzy Perez (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Karolyn Wientge (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Maria Najarro (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team)
Departing players (2025-26)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reagan Pullium | — | 42 | 23.8% | 19.7% | 15.5% | 3.4% | 11.6% |
| Eileen Lally | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 27.1% | 8.2% |
| Shannon Bryan | — | 29 | 16.4% | 12.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.7% |
| Elle Cahill | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Franny Handley | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katie Kirsch | — | 2 | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tatum Smiley | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2025-26)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reagan Pullium | offense | 14 | 43 | 23.8% | 19.5% | 6.0% | 0.0% / 6.0% | 11.0 |
| Jayne Riva | offense | 14 | 22 | 13.4% | 29.4% | 7.7% | 0.0% / 7.7% | 10.7 |
| Ella Nichols | offense | 14 | 22 | 12.8% | 23.2% | 5.0% | 0.0% / 5.0% | 8.8 |
| Eileen Lally | goalie | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 34.7% | 34.7% / 0.0% | 6.7 |
| Brooke Butler | offense | 13 | 6 | 3.2% | 16.7% | 5.4% | 0.0% / 5.4% | 5.2 |
| Shannon Bryan | offense | 11 | 31 | 16.4% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.0% / 1.9% | 5.0 |
| Claire Stratton | goalie | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 20.3% | 20.3% / 0.0% | 3.9 |
| Maria Najarro | offense | 14 | 27 | 13.9% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 0.0% / 1.4% | 3.9 |
| Karolyn Wientge | offense | 14 | 15 | 8.6% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.0% / 2.0% | 3.2 |
| Addie McManus | offense | 13 | 5 | 2.6% | 0.0% | 2.3% | 0.0% / 2.3% | 1.1 |
| Katie Kirsch | offense | 8 | 3 | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% / 0.6% | 0.8 |
| Izzy Perez | defense | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.2% | 0.0% / 3.2% | 0.6 |
| Chloe Dankoski | offense | 11 | 3 | 1.0% | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.0% / 1.7% | 0.6 |
| Julia Boren | defense | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.7% | 2.3% | 0.0% / 2.3% | 0.6 |
| Elle Cahill | defense | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.9% | 0.0% / 2.9% | 0.6 |
| Katie Wall | offense | 4 | 4 | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.5 |
| Tatum Smiley | defense | 7 | 1 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% / 0.9% | 0.3 |
| Franny Handley | defense | 4 | 1 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% / 0.5% | 0.2 |
| Anna Guerra | defense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% / 0.5% | 0.2 |
| McLaren Elli | offense | 3 | 1 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.2 |
| Kate Carpio | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.1 |
| Nora Lally | defense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Claire O'Brien | defense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2027)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Incarnate Word | 9.6 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 9.2 | — |
| Notre Dame | 8.4 | — |
| Clayton | 7.6 | — |
| Parkway North | 7.3 | — |
| Parkway Central | 7.1 | — |
| Belleville West | 6.9 | — |
| Parkway South | 6.9 | — |
| Francis Howell | 6.3 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 6.2 | — |
| Pattonville | 6.1 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 6.1 | — |
| Marquette | 5.8 | — |
| Lindbergh | 5.6 | — |
| Kirkwood | 5.6 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 5.4 | — |
| Webster Groves | 5.1 | — |
| St. Dominic | 5.0 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | 5.0 | — |
| Parkway West | 4.8 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | 4.5 | — |
| Northwest | 4.5 | — |
| O'Fallon | 3.9 | — |
| Eureka | -3.7 | — |
| Fox High School | 3.5 | — |
| Lafayette | 3.4 | — |
| Wentzville | -3.3 | — |
| Oakville | 3.1 | — |
| MICDS | -2.4 | — |
| Edwardsville | 1.8 | — |
| Westminster | -0.7 | — |
| Visitation Academy | 0.5 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | 0.5 | — |
| John Burroughs | -0.3 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | 0.2 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2027,
"team_name": "St. Joseph's Academy",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 6,
"current_composite_rank": 8,
"recommended_rank": 6,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 0,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 49.49,
"score_drop": 23.6,
"returning_production_share": 0.577,
"departure_loss_pct": 23.6,
"legacy_prior": 1.0,
"seniors_count": 7,
"awards_points": 28,
"departing_awards_points": 16,
"returning_awards_points": 12,
"flag_codes": "award_talent_loss",
"action_flag_codes": "award_talent_loss",
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 1,
"action_flag_count": 1,
"needs_board_review": "yes",
"review_priority": "medium",
"regression_tracks": "award_talent_review",
"board_note": "Recommend rank 6 (prior finish 6). Flagged for board review: award_talent_loss. Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 6,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": 6,
"actual_finish_rank": null,
"projection_error": null,
"is_backtest": false,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2026-27\", \"team_name\": \"St. Joseph's Academy\", \"avg_margin\": \"4.07\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 6 (prior finish 6). Flagged for board review: award_talent_loss. Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"6\", \"flag_codes\": \"award_talent_loss\", \"flag_count\": \"1\", \"margin_std\": \"8.7\", \"score_drop\": \"23.6\", \"top8_games\": \"7\", \"margin_wins\": \"11\", \"top16_games\": \"11\", \"legacy_prior\": \"1.0\", \"margin_games\": \"14\", \"awards_points\": \"28\", \"margin_losses\": \"3\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"7\", \"record_vs_top8\": \"4-3\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"medium\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"30.9\", \"departing_awards\": \"Reagan Pullium (all state first: 1st Team); Shannon Bryan (all state hm: Honorable Mention); Reagan Pullium (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Shannon Bryan (all conference: GISL; 1st Team)\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"26.8\", \"projection_error\": \"\", \"recommended_rank\": \"6\", \"returning_awards\": \"Jayne Riva (all state hm: Honorable Mention); Ella Nichols (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Jayne Riva (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Brooke Butler (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Izzy Perez (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Karolyn Wientge (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Maria Najarro (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team)\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.533\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"award_talent_loss\", \"action_flag_count\": \"1\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_capped\": \"3.5\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"model_adjusted\", \"league_order_rank\": \"6\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"6\", \"regression_tracks\": \"award_talent_review\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"\", \"avg_margin_vs_top8\": \"-2.29\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"23.6\", \"needs_board_review\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.759\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_vs_top16\": \"2.09\", \"margin_std_vs_top16\": \"8.84\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"10.4\", \"projected_composite\": \"49.49\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.759\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"True\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"8\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.633\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"16\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-0.74\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"12\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"feeder_pair_offense;late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"76.37\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"6\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.526\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.577\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"6\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 6,
"projected_margin_rating": -0.74,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": 2.09,
"projected_turnover_index": 76.37,
"departing_awards": "Reagan Pullium (all state first: 1st Team); Shannon Bryan (all state hm: Honorable Mention); Reagan Pullium (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Shannon Bryan (all conference: GISL; 1st Team)",
"returning_awards": "Jayne Riva (all state hm: Honorable Mention); Ella Nichols (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Jayne Riva (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Brooke Butler (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Izzy Perez (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Karolyn Wientge (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Maria Najarro (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team)",
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "st-joseph-s-academy",
"effective_rank": 6,
"final_rank_resolved": 6
}