Visitation Academy
prior #7 · recommended #8 · final #8 legacy 0.55Margin strength
3.9
vs top-16 avg 3.9
Projected margin
-1.5
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.580
as of 2026-05-30
Offense
67.67
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
63.03
domain stat
Possession
57.03
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #7
- Recommended (model)
- #9
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #8
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #8
- Projected margin rating
- -1.5
- Departure loss %
- 45.1%
- Returning production share
- 22.0%
- Departure loss
- 45.1%
- Seniors departing
- 6
- Awards points
- +3 returning · −21 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.55
Action-flagged
- · low_returning_heavy_loss
- · award_talent_loss
Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review;underclass_surge_or_replacement
Secondary regression: returning_feeder_core
Awards
Departing
Molly Fesler (all state first: 1st Team); Margot Newbold (all state hm: Honorable Mention); Caelan Vulin (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Margot Newbold (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Molly Fesler (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Ellie Glarner (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Evie Harris (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Kendall Ann McGowan (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention)
Returning
Anna Friedrich (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Clare Gunn (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Maria Travers (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention)
Departing players (2025-26)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molly Fesler | — | 62 | 34.9% | 30.7% | 30.0% | 3.5% | 17.5% |
| Evie Harris | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 47.4% | 12.9% |
| Margot Newbold | — | 32 | 18.0% | 13.8% | 19.8% | 3.6% | 10.2% |
| Caelan Vulin | — | 25 | 14.0% | 9.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.7% |
| Ellie Glarner | — | 15 | 8.5% | 4.3% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.8% |
| Kendall Ann McGowan | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2025-26)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molly Fesler | offense | 14 | 60 | 34.9% | 34.0% | 6.1% | 0.0% / 6.1% | 15.4 |
| Evie Harris | goalie | 14 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% / 0.0% | 12.1 |
| Margot Newbold | offense | 14 | 33 | 17.9% | 23.8% | 6.3% | 0.0% / 6.3% | 9.7 |
| Maria Travers | offense | 13 | 11 | 5.8% | 29.5% | 4.8% | 0.0% / 4.8% | 7.5 |
| Caelan Vulin | offense | 14 | 24 | 14.0% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 0.0% / 2.7% | 4.1 |
| Caroline Glarner | offense | 14 | 23 | 11.7% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 0.0% / 4.1% | 4.1 |
| Ellie Glarner | offense | 14 | 19 | 8.5% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 0.0% / 4.1% | 3.7 |
| Lennon Barnes | offense | 8 | 5 | 2.9% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 0.0% / 1.8% | 1.1 |
| Clare Gunn | defense | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.7% | 0.0% / 4.7% | 1.0 |
| Brigid Feldman | offense | 11 | 3 | 2.1% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% / 1.2% | 0.8 |
| Georgia Sanders | offense | 11 | 2 | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 0.0% / 1.7% | 0.7 |
| Anna Friedrich | defense | 11 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.5% | 2.8% | 0.0% / 2.8% | 0.7 |
| Allie Amadio | offense | 6 | 1 | 0.5% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% / 0.5% | 0.7 |
| Kendall Ann McGowan | defense | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.4% | 0.0% / 2.4% | 0.5 |
| Ella Silverman | offense | 3 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.3 |
| Winnie Ferrick | offense | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% / 1.2% | 0.3 |
| Lucy Glarner | offense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.1 |
Projected matchups (2027)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Incarnate Word | 9.2 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 8.7 | — |
| Notre Dame | 7.9 | — |
| Clayton | 7.2 | — |
| Parkway North | 6.8 | — |
| Parkway Central | 6.6 | — |
| Parkway South | 6.5 | — |
| Belleville West | 6.4 | — |
| Francis Howell | 5.9 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 5.7 | — |
| Pattonville | 5.7 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 5.6 | — |
| Marquette | 5.3 | — |
| Lindbergh | 5.1 | — |
| Kirkwood | 5.1 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 4.9 | — |
| Webster Groves | 4.6 | — |
| St. Dominic | 4.5 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | 4.5 | — |
| Parkway West | 4.4 | — |
| Eureka | -4.2 | — |
| Northwest | 4.0 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | 4.0 | — |
| Wentzville | -3.8 | — |
| O'Fallon | 3.5 | — |
| Fox High School | 3.1 | — |
| Lafayette | 3.0 | — |
| MICDS | -2.8 | — |
| Oakville | 2.7 | — |
| Edwardsville | 1.3 | — |
| Westminster | -1.2 | — |
| John Burroughs | -0.7 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -0.5 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -0.2 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | 0.1 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2027,
"team_name": "Visitation Academy",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 7,
"current_composite_rank": 5,
"recommended_rank": 9,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 2,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 36.74,
"score_drop": 45.1,
"returning_production_share": 0.22,
"departure_loss_pct": 45.1,
"legacy_prior": 0.546,
"seniors_count": 6,
"awards_points": 25,
"departing_awards_points": 21,
"returning_awards_points": 3,
"flag_codes": "low_returning_heavy_loss;award_talent_loss",
"action_flag_codes": "low_returning_heavy_loss;award_talent_loss",
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 2,
"action_flag_count": 2,
"needs_board_review": "yes",
"review_priority": "medium",
"regression_tracks": "award_talent_review;underclass_surge_or_replacement",
"board_note": "Recommend rank 9 (prior finish 7). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss, award_talent_loss. Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review; underclass_surge_or_replacement.",
"secondary_slot_delta": -1,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": "returning_feeder_core",
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 8,
"adjusted_rank_delta": -1,
"league_order_rank": 8,
"actual_finish_rank": null,
"projection_error": null,
"is_backtest": false,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2026-27\", \"team_name\": \"Visitation Academy\", \"avg_margin\": \"6.57\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 9 (prior finish 7). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss, award_talent_loss. Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review; underclass_surge_or_replacement.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.213\", \"final_rank\": \"8\", \"flag_codes\": \"low_returning_heavy_loss;award_talent_loss\", \"flag_count\": \"2\", \"margin_std\": \"6.93\", \"score_drop\": \"45.1\", \"top8_games\": \"5\", \"margin_wins\": \"9\", \"top16_games\": \"10\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.546\", \"margin_games\": \"14\", \"awards_points\": \"25\", \"margin_losses\": \"5\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"6\", \"record_vs_top8\": \"0-5\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"medium\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"45.0\", \"departing_awards\": \"Molly Fesler (all state first: 1st Team); Margot Newbold (all state hm: Honorable Mention); Caelan Vulin (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Margot Newbold (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Molly Fesler (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Ellie Glarner (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Evie Harris (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Kendall Ann McGowan (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention)\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"38.0\", \"projection_error\": \"\", \"recommended_rank\": \"9\", \"returning_awards\": \"Anna Friedrich (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Clare Gunn (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Maria Travers (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention)\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.335\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"low_returning_heavy_loss;award_talent_loss\", \"action_flag_count\": \"2\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"1\", \"avg_margin_capped\": \"5.29\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"model_adjusted\", \"league_order_rank\": \"8\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"7\", \"regression_tracks\": \"award_talent_review;underclass_surge_or_replacement\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"\", \"avg_margin_vs_top8\": \"-1.4\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"45.1\", \"needs_board_review\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.404\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"-1\", \"avg_margin_vs_top16\": \"3.9\", \"margin_std_vs_top16\": \"6.14\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"42.0\", \"projected_composite\": \"36.74\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"2\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.404\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"-1\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"True\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"5\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.393\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"21\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-1.51\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"3\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"feeder_pair_offense\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"54.94\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"8\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.232\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.22\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"returning_feeder_core\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"8\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 8,
"projected_margin_rating": -1.51,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": 3.9,
"projected_turnover_index": 54.94,
"departing_awards": "Molly Fesler (all state first: 1st Team); Margot Newbold (all state hm: Honorable Mention); Caelan Vulin (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Margot Newbold (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Molly Fesler (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Ellie Glarner (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Evie Harris (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Kendall Ann McGowan (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention)",
"returning_awards": "Anna Friedrich (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Clare Gunn (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Maria Travers (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention)",
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "visitation-academy",
"effective_rank": 8,
"final_rank_resolved": 8
}